Editorial Team/Staff Writers
🔴 Claim
On July 1, the World Bank released its latest annual country income classifications, again listing Uganda among low-income countries. The classification revives a claim President Yoweri Museveni made in his June 7, 2022, state-of-the-nation address, when he told Parliament that Uganda had reached middle-income status, citing GDP per person of $1,046—above what he described as the $1,036 threshold.
🔴 Background
Since the claim was made, it has been repeated by government officials: Former Minister of Finance Matia Kasaija repeated it in the 2024–2025 budget speech. The UNDP also referenced it in March 2024. And Mr Museveni reiterated the point last year, saying: “Here the size of Uganda’s economy is now $61 billion by the exchange rate method and $174 billion by the purchasing power parity method. Given our population, which is about 45 million Ugandans, we are no longer a least developed country. We are now a lower-middle-income country.” Officially, according to the government, Uganda is a middle-income country.
🔴 What OJ-UGANDA checked
- World Bank Income Classifications: International organisations and investors primarily rely on the World Bank’s annual data.
- International Monetary Fund (IMF): Whether the IMF classifies Uganda as a lower-middle-income economy.
🔴 What we found
- Since the claim was made in 2022, all World Bank income classifications for Uganda suggest it is a low-income country, not a lower-middle-income economy. That means Uganda’s Gross National Income per person is less than the Bank’s threshold of $1,175. This threshold is not fixed, and the Bank used it for 2025. It is adjusted annually for inflation.
- GNI per person means the income earned by a country’s people and businesses in a year, divided by its population. The Bank calculates GNI per person using the Atlas method. It does not measure GDP per person, as Uganda does.
- The IMF still classifies Uganda as a low-income country (pdf), which would not be the case if it had transitioned to a lower-middle-income status.
🔴 Verdict
- The claim is misleading.
🔴 Conclusion
There is no evidence from institutions that independently classify countries’ income categories to support the claim that Uganda graduated to lower-middle-income status. The government used a methodology that the World Bank does not agree with. The World Bank’s classification is key because it is internationally recognised and determines whether Uganda receives loans and grants as a low-income country or as a lower-middle-income country. Both the World Bank and the IMF still classify Uganda as a low-income country.
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CORRECTION: Updated July 21, 2026, 19:45: An earlier version of this fact-check stated that OJ-UGANDA checked the UN’s Least Developed Countries list to see if Uganda had been removed. Graduating to lower-middle-income status does not automatically lead to removal from the list since the UN uses a broader criterion, including human assets and environmental vulnerability.
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