The World Bank has released its annual July 1 classification of countries by income group, and Uganda remains a low-income country—four years after President Yoweri Museveni and the Ministry of Finance declared that the country had transitioned to lower middle-income status.

The government’s 2022 announcement was based on calculations by the Uganda Bureau of Statistics (UBOS), which said Uganda had crossed the income threshold using its own methodology. The Finance Ministry hailed the milestone as evidence that government policies were delivering economic transformation.

But outside Uganda, the declaration carries little or no practical weight. International organisations, investors and development partners continue to rely on the World Bank’s classification, under which Uganda is still listed as a low-income economy.

Why does Uganda say it is middle-income while the World Bank says it isn’t?

How it all started

Uganda has effectively had two income classifications since 2022:

Uganda’s own classification: In June 2022, while delivering the State-of-the-Nation address, President Museveni declared that Uganda had attained lower middle-income status. Uganda had used—and still uses—a methodology that is different from that of the World Bank. It divides Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by the population and gets a classification based on GDP per person. GDP is defined as the total value of everything a country produces in a year. In 2024, while delivering the budget speech, former Finance Minister Matia Kasaija said Uganda’s GDP had grown to an estimated shs202 trillion ($53.3b), up from shs184.3 trillion ($48.8b). GDP per person, he said, was $1,146 compared to $1,081 in the Financial Year 2022/23.

The internationally recognised World Bank classification: This refers to the country’s Gross National Income (GNI) per person. GNI per person is the income earned by a country’s people and businesses in a year, divided by its population. The World Bank maintains that Uganda’s GNI per person qualifies it for a low-income status, not lower middle income. It defines low-income countries as economies with a GNI per person of $1,175 or less. This threshold was used for 2025. It’s not fixed forever; it’s adjusted annually for inflation. The Bank calculates GNI per person using the Atlas method, and classifications are not permanent. Country X may be a high-income economy this year and slip to upper middle-income status next year.

Why doesn’t the World Bank agree?

The Bank’s internationally standardised methodology (the Atlas method) applies to all its members. It cannot be used selectively. In other words, Uganda cannot be called a lower middle-income when the Bank’s methodology has not been applied to it.

Which classification actually matters internationally?

The World Bank’s classification matters internationally because of the following:

• Investors quote the World Bank
• International organisations quote the World Bank
• Aid agencies use the World Bank
• Economists compare countries using the World Bank
• Universities and researchers overwhelmingly cite the World Bank

That does not mean that Uganda’s classification is wrong. It means the World Bank provides the global benchmark everyone uses.

Is Uganda’s economy growing?

Yes. According to the IMF, it is one of the fastest-growing economies in Africa. But this growth is not enough, according to the World Bank’s methodology, to move Uganda into the next income category.

Does the disagreement mean one side is lying?

No. This is about different statistical methods, not necessarily fabricated numbers. But the practical consequence is that only one classification is internationally recognised.