Can Muhoozi go far when Besigye and Bobi Wine are suffering?

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Musaazi NAMITI | The Founder’s Mind Space


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Army chief General Muhoozi Kainerugaba is ramping up his campaign to succeed his father, Yoweri Museveni, as president. If the ongoing exercise to collect millions of signatures endorsing his 2031 presidency is anything to go by, he has started early and in real earnest.

Mr Museveni’s departure, therefore, is a matter of time. The government and Gen Kainerugaba have created problems that are proving hard to fix. After the January election, they went for the president of the National Unity Platform, Robert Kyagulanyi Ssentamu aka Bobi Wine, who was Mr Museveni’s challenger.

Bobi Wine, acting on a tip-off, managed to flee the country. Nonetheless, security forces stormed his house, ransacked it and undressed his wife.

Many of Bobi Wine’s supporters—and there are millions—believe that he would have won the election if it were free and fair. He continues to live in exile in the US. Meanwhile, Gen Kainerugaba’s social media posts have left no one in doubt that if returns home, he will be jailed.

His supporters are not happy but are constrained by the lethal force the government has previously used when it feels threatened.

Bobi Wine is not alone. Former presidential candidate Dr Kizza Besigye is currently on trial for alleged treason after he was abducted in Nairobi and brought to Uganda, along with his aide, Obeid Lutale. The conduct of his trial has left many wondering whether he committed the crime he is accused of at all.

Initially, the government claimed it had incriminating evidence against Dr Besigye. Normally when the plaintiff has strong evidence, the trial is straightforward. The defendant is allowed to have legal representation of his choosing and access to medical care if they need it.

Dr Besigye has been denied both. He collapsed in court and was rushed to the ICU. His wife, Winnie Byayima, requested that he is allowed to seek medical care outside the country, but the government has flatly rejected her request.

Dr Besigye’s Kenyan lawyer, Martha Karua, was deported in June while trying to clear immigration at Entebbe International Airport. His co-lead lawyer and former Kampala mayor Erias Lukwago was abducted and later charged with misprision of treason, or the offence of knowing that someone has committed or is planning to commit treason and deliberately failing to report it to the authorities.

The charges are questionable considering that since Dr Besigye was abducted in November 2024, nothing was ever mentioned about Mr Lukwago’s complicity until he came forward to represent him. Mr Lukwago even sought re-election as Kampala mayor, although he was unsuccessful.

People are wondering why he was not arrested at the same time as Dr Besigye. More importantly, why was he abducted from his home when he could have been arrested in the normal way?

Gen Kainerugaba has not said when he will resign from the army to concentrate on his presidential bid since the constitution bars him from engaging in politics as a serving military officer.

The country is on tenterhooks. The brute-force strategy, while effective, can only be short-term—and it is tarnishing Uganda. The UN and human rights groups have criticised the ongoing repression, and the internet is replete with images of people who have been abducted and badly tortured.

There appears to be no easy way out for Gen Kainerugaba. If he allows Bobi Wine to return, he will have created a formidable challenger at the ballot box. It is doubtful he can beat Bobi Wine in a free and fair election. 

If Dr Besigye is convicted and jailed, anger among his supporters will skyrocket. If he’s freed, he will be a major political threat. For Gen Kainerugaba, whether Dr Besigye and Bobi are free or suffering, things may not look great.


🔴 Musaazi Namiti is the Founder and Editorial Director of OJ-UGANDA. He previously led the Africa Desk at Al Jazeera in Doha, Qatar, worked for Globe Media Asia in Cambodia and writes a widely read column for Uganda’s Weekend Monitor. His work has been quoted by The New York Times, The Guardian, The Wall Street Journal, Jeune Afrique, The Africa Report—not for playing it safe, but for saying what others will not.

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