After being in parliament for only two months, Elias Luyimbaazi Nalukoola, who won the Kawempe North seat in March on the National Unity Platform (NUP) ticket, now has to go back to the voters and seek their support.
The High Court, citing irregularities, declared the seat vacant on May 26 following a petition by the governing NRM’s candidate, Faridah Nambi, who finished a distant second.
Mr Nalukoola polled 17,764 votes against 8,593 votes for Ms Nambi, a daughter of the NRM’s vice chairman, Moses Kigongo.
That number rose to 9,058 votes days after Mr Nalukoola had been declared winner, with Ms Nambi alleging the Electoral Commission had disenfranchised voters at 14 polling stations whose results were excluded from the final tally.
After the violence-marred election, in which several journalists sustained serious injuries at the hands of security forces, Mr Nalukoola had to wait much longer than it normally takes to be officially declared winner by the Electoral Commission.
The new by-election is going to significantly raise the political temperature in Kawempe North, and violence could even be worse than last time.
But for Ms Nambi, two major questions remain: How is she going to win Kawempe North, which everyone knows is solidly behind the opposition? Are the voters at polling stations she claims were disenfranchised supporters of the NRM and are ready to vote for her?
The numbers from the 2021 election (pdf) in Kawempe North suggest the NRM is too unpopular to pose a serious challenge to the opposition. For example, the late Muhammad Ssegirinya, who won the seat on the NUP ticket, polled 41,197 votes against 7,512 votes for Sulaiman Sserwadda Kidandala, an independent candidate who came in second by a wide margin.
Monday’s ruling will surprise many given some of the grounds Justice Bernard Namanya cited for annulling the election. He said 16,640 voters in Kawempe North, including Ms Nambi, were denied the right to vote, which affected the result of the election in a substantial manner.
But this video—not made up—appears to show Ms Nambi voting. Her petition cited incidents of voter intimidation, ballot tampering and disruptions at polling stations in areas considered NRM strongholds.
In that election, the NRM’s candidate, Tom Johnfisher Kasenge, secured 6,946 votes. While Ms Nambi garnered more votes than Mr Kasenge did, the figures from the two elections suggest the opposition is streets ahead of the competition.
Ms Nambi will require something of a miracle to change reality on the ground. The election was held just a couple of months ago, and nothing or little has changed since then. People who voted for Mr Nalukoola will still vote for him—and many voters are still angry with the NRM because of the gratuitous violence.
But the NRM’s all-too-familiar playbook of trying to win elections where it has little support means Ms Nambi could spring a surprise. The party could use security forces, especially at polling stations where Mr Nalukoola has solid support, to intimidate voters and make it hard for them to vote.
It could also do what it did in 2011 for former Busiro South MP Peter Ssematimba when he was contesting Kampala mayoral elections: Ballot boxes arrived already full of pre-ticked ballots for him. Although the Electoral Commission cancelled the results, Mr Ssematimba denied any involvement and said: “This could have been done by opponents to discredit me.”
Monday’s ruling will surprise many given some of the grounds Justice Bernard Namanya cited for annulling the election. He said 16,640 voters in Kawempe North, including Ms Nambi, were denied the right to vote, which affected the result of the election in a substantial manner.
But this video—not made up—shows Ms Nambi voting. Her petition cited incidents of voter intimidation, ballot tampering and disruptions at polling stations in areas considered NRM strongholds. Given the ruling party’s formidable security apparatus and how desperately it wanted to win the seat, it is hard to see how the opposition could have intimidated voters and tampered with votes.
It is worth mentioning that security forces were literally all over the constituency to ensure opposition supporters did not cause chaos and confusion. Were the opposition supporters armed and intimidated security operatives?
The by-election is going to be watched keenly. If Ms Nambi wins, Mr Nalukoola will likely launch a petition—because it is hard for her to beat the opposition in a free and fair election. If Mr Nalukoola wins, money and time will have been wasted. Kawempe North remains an opposition stronghold. It is firmly in NUP’s hands.
🔴 Musaazi Namiti is the Founder and Editorial Director of OJ-UGANDA. He previously led the Africa Desk at Al Jazeera in Doha, Qatar, worked for Globe Media Asia in Cambodia and writes a widely read column for Uganda’s Sunday Monitor. His work has been quoted by The New York Times, The Guardian, The Wall Street Journal, Jeune Afrique, The Africa Report—not for playing it safe, but for saying what others will not.
Email: musaazinamiti@ojuganda.com
X: @kazbuk
