This article, edited for brevity and clarity, is part of a public lecture delivered by Professor Jeffrey Sachs last November at University of the Witwatersrand in South Africa. Prof Sachs argues that Africa’s population growth, in an aging world, presents a rare opportunity for continent-wide economic transformation if matched with scale, planning and investment in young people.
Most of the world is reaching the peak or has already reached the peak of their population. What we have is aging rather than further population growth.
China reached its peak population probably two years ago on the official estimates, and will now experience quite a significant decline of population. China now has 1.4 billion people. By the end of this century, the projection is well below 1 billion, and the actual UN medium forecast is below 800 million.
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The one region where the population continues to grow rapidly is Africa. Africa’s population grew five times from 1950 till today. It is now 1.5 billion. According to the medium forecast of the UN, Africa’s population will reach 2.5 billion by mid-century, and about 3.7 billion in 2100.
In percentage terms, this means Africa’s population was 9% of the world population in 1950. Today it is 19%. One out of every five people on the planet is African. By 2050, it will be about 25% of the world population, and by 2100, 35% of the world population.
So Africa will be in the centre of the world story, the world history, the world population, the world demographics in the course of this century.
Now, what does all of this mean for Africa? I believe, not that it is inevitable, but that it is feasible. The right target is for Africa essentially to follow the path that China followed between 1980 and 2020: In a process of 40 years, going from low income to high income, going from quite widespread continuing poverty, especially in rural areas, to zero poverty during this period.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
- By 2100, Africa will house 35% of the world, becoming the global demographic centre.
- Emulating China’s growth path can transition Africa to high-income status by 2050.
- Africa must operate as a unified continental union to achieve essential economic scale.
- Investing in universal secondary education and digital tools is critical for Africa’s youth.
- Africa now holds the sovereign power to prevent external forces from stalling progress.
China became a powerhouse of the world economy because of the demographic changes. And that is what I think should be envisioned, should be planned for and should be accomplished.
China used its advantages of planning, foresight, visioning and even what we call relative lag, its poverty, meaning a lot of catching up room, and technological innovation to achieve 10% per year economic growth over a 40-year period.
My analysis and recommendation is that Africa chart out such an ambitious trajectory because the continent’s time has come. But it takes some change of perspective and some new strategy. The change of perspective, first of all, is that this has to happen at a continent-wide scale. After the imperialist age, Africa was left with 54 countries and a 55th one in dispute. The transformation that I am talking about cannot happen 54 separate times. It should be an Africa-wide success because scale matters in economics.
China and India were able to grow so fast because of a large economy and a large market that supported a lot of innovation. It also supported a single strategy that was coherent to build out a power system, to build out a fast rail system, to build out a highway system, to build out a 5G digital system.
ANSWERS TO QUESTIONS OUR READERS OFTEN ASK
And Africa should act like a union, like a continental free trade area, that is investing at the African scale to accomplish what China and India have accomplished. And that, I think, is the key first step to being able to replicate this rapid catching up plus leapfrogging process.
In order to do that, think like a union. Partner with universities across the continent to help engender this kind of Africa-wide ambition and strategy and know-how to get this done. Champion union, true African union, true Pan-Africanism, to be able to accomplish this.
An Africa-wide investment programme that invests first in the young people is key. The continent’s vast population increase is so promising if you invest in the skills of the young people. Keep the mindset: no child should be without at least a high school education, upper secondary, minimum, everywhere, quality. No child should be at school without a laptop.
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